The bread and chicken will cost the Russians in a round sum
In February it is expected sharp rise in food inflation. Food stocks that trade networks acquired for prices in 2018 has already been depleted, and procurement of new cost significantly more. And while the farmers and the sellers raise the price of your product, the consumer, the lowest link of the trading chain, waiting for the hyped price xerocomus blow to his purse. Experts say that the time has come, and the drivers of price growth in February will be such socially important products as bread, milk, egg, and chicken meat. The people have to save money or buying products to a smaller volume, or by going to their cheaper substitutes, for example, in the semis.
Since the beginning of 2019 every week in the stores, you receive a kind of “product-meteor”, which is more expensive hardest: the eggs, then the chicken, then the flour… this Happens mainly due to the increase in VAT, the key interest rate and fuel price hike. Back in the fall of 2018 consumer market analysts said that a serious wave of price increases will cover the Russians in February of this year: first, more expensive grains and vegetables, and the dynamics of price growth may persist until April.
The Executive Director of the Association of producers and suppliers of food products “Rusprodsoyuz” Dmitry Vostrikov said that consumer price growth could be around 8%, and the most dramatic change of value happens in the first quarter of 2019.
The cost of bread, eggs and chicken meat went to take off last year and still continues to climb. Vostrikov predicted that the growth of prices for bakery products will be 6-7%. Bakers will by all means try to cover production costs. In the autumn of last year, the media wrote that the producers asked the company to raise selling prices by 8-12%. According to the calculations of producers in 2019, the value of their output may rise to 20%. Some experts do not share the view that the retail value of bakery products is growing owing to the increase in VAT. According to them, all because of the rise in price of grain and flour. For 2018, the price of first grade wheat flour and rye flour increased by an average of 27%.
Farmers were also warned about the increasing prices of organic dairy products, made without vegetable fat, 5-15%. Manufacturers of such products rely on a sharp jump in demand, it will become evident when the replacement will cause the coveted labeling about the “purity” of their products, and entice them to raise the price tag.
Let’s remember about the “nines” eggs: reports of smaller packages with less product at the same price in early 2019, has literally blown up information field. By 2018, their value has grown faster than the rest of the food. According to Rosstat, eggs rose in December 2018 nearly 26% compared to the same period of the previous year. By the way, following a substantial increase in prices is expected according to tradition, before Easter, this year the holiday fell on April 28. Consumer demand for the product skyrocketed and farmers will bid up prices, which in the future will not be reduced, experts warn.
Fuel price hike is the main argument used by poultry farms, arguing higher prices for their products. The cost began to increase in mid-2018. In 2019, the tendency to increase remained. According to the Ministry of agriculture, the price of chicken has increased by 22% on average compared to January last year. According to the Ministry now poultry sell poultry at a price 117,2 thousand roubles for ton. This figure is 21.8% higher than in January last year. The first Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on agrarian and food policy and nature management Sergey Lisovsky said that another reason for the growth in the cost of production of farmers. “Russia has a lot of grain sold abroad, and due to the fact that the ruble is weak, the price of this product in the domestic market grew by 20-30% because have to sell themselves not profitable,” — said the Senator.
Given production chain and logistics of goods to the final consumer food prices since the beginning of year has grown by more than 2%, according to a leading analyst of the Forex Optimum Ivan kapustyasky. According to him, the negative effects of rising prices for gasoline, nobody will be spared. “The business is increasing costs and, as a consequence, the cost of growth, — said the expert. These expenses will be transferred to the consumer. That, in the absence of real income growth, will be a serious blow to the welfare of citizens.”