Almost all support get close to power businesses — and this will be disastrous for Russia, said economist Vladislav Zhukovsky.
About the consequences of actions of the Russian authorities in the context of the current crisis in an interview with “Rosbalt” says economist Vladislav Zhukovsky.
— What principles formed the list of strategic enterprises, which the government promises help?
— This list is drawn up at the request of officials — depending on who of the big businessmen, the oligarchs managed to reach the government. Now the list has more than a thousand companies. There are trade networks and pharmacies, and brick distillery, at some point there was even a bookmaker…
But you need to understand that the backbone of the strategically significant enterprises — those that were in lists and 2008, and 2014 — does not change. At least 40% of the core — state corporations and their subsidiaries. Another 35% is the company affiliated with the state through government contracts, major contractors in the execution of public procurement. It is also quasi-public companies, big business, oligarchs who closely fused with the authorities.
Formally, in the list — a huge number of companies, but 80-90% of the support will be granted those who are closest to the government: “Gazprom”, “Rosneft”, rosseti, Rosatom, Aeroflot, etc.
— What will get the rest?
— Regular business and medium, and even large private companies, if they are in the list, nothing is guaranteed. To promise — does not mean to marry.
Moreover, the whole support is actually negligible. At her pre-approved expenses of $ 1 trillion 400 billion roubles. It is less than 1.3% of GDP. Smear a thousand companies the same amount — as dead poultices. This in no way can save you from a sharp decline in demand and consumer spending, falling oil prices, quarantines, of Samothrace and other negative things. In the simulation of turbulent activity is much more public relations bombast, attempts to make a good mine at bad game.
And in any case the lion’s share of support will go either to corporations or large companies which are connected with the system of state orders — those that are engaged in renovation and other improvement of hundreds of billions of rubles to build roads and bridges, repairing the facades. But for ordinary private business it is absolutely useless story.
Imagine: in the list of one thousand companies, including many large state players. To get there, private enterprise will have to collect a lot of documents, to provide all financial records to prove that in a certain period had not been paid any dividends and has not decreased more than 10% of the staff… Support will be on a dime, and a boring other costs, bumagomaratelstva and all the rest — just above the roof.
— So those who were not included in the list not to get upset?
— I think, Yes. Spread the promised 1 trillion 400 billion rubles per thousand of enterprises. But we must understand that the same “Gazprom”, “Rosneft”, “Rosatom” and other major state-owned companies will get billions of rubles and tens of billions. What will the others? To fight for the sake of a few hundred million rubles will be unprofitable. But then you ask the tax office, the security forces, the investigative Committee — for where you put money. And still not prove that is not stolen.
— What will be the consequences from ill-considered actions of the authorities in the economy?
— State support in a half, even two percent of GDP, which will be allegedly allocated from the budget (yet it is no company really does not have), to correct the economic situation will not. We must understand that the fall of the Russian economy in the second quarter of this year will reach 30-35%. At year-end, the fall will not be 6-7%, as we promised to the government, and in the region of 20%.
— What could be the alternative?
Real support would be that for the next six months, the state is completely liberated from paying taxes, rent, loans, insurance premiums small business, Ipshnikov and all companies which are not engaged in the export of raw materials, and are oriented to the domestic market. The abolition of taxes on self-employed must be full forever, this should be the reset rate.
Plus payments from the budget to 25 thousand rubles to every Russian citizen — it would require somewhere around 4 trillion, but the money in the national welfare Fund is.
— As “handing out money” to the population would help the economy?
— It would support consumption. The most terrible blow to the economy would be that after the end of the regime “isolation”, which will not happen before June-July, people go out into the street, but no money — and they do not have anything to buy food, goods and services. And without demand, no business can not live. For ways to support effective demand went USA, Canada, EU, UK. In Russia this question do not, therefore, our economy will fall much stronger than in Europe and America. It will be like in 2008 or in 2014.
What is now proposed by the Russian government, in no way able to compensate for this inevitable decline.