The part of the Russians and migrants remain without work. Some people will not be able to return home, others simply will be no money to live on and repay loans.
Than a temporary quarantine may lead to the country in which millions of internal and external migrants, every second there is a loan, not even one, but absolutely no savings, “Rosbalt” asked the experts.
As the Director of the Center for socio-political monitoring ION Rankins Andrew Departing, many migrants from Central Asia working in Russia illegally. “A few years ago there were about 80% now — half or a little more. The Russians, the situation is not much better. Among them too are enough people who work without official registration or issued with the minimum wage. Among employees there are about 10-15%. All are in equally difficult circumstances. In the case of reduction of the reduced consumption and employment both in the formal and in the informal sector,” he said.
Now the Russian authorities have introduced measures to ban entry into the country until the end of may, said the lead researcher INSEP Yulia Florinskaya. This means that the migrants, who in the spring usually come to Russia for temporary work, staying at home, the pressure on the labour market will decrease. But, on the other hand, in the country are migrants who either are unable to go home or afraid that you will not be able to return.
“It is clear that foreign workers will care in the least. In any crisis they are the first fired,” — said Florinskaya.
Construction is the main sphere in which employed migrant workers from Central Asia will be curtailed last. If new employees do not come, we here will use to the fullest, the expert believes. This means that at least they have no money left.
“From those areas which have traditionally employed migrants in the first place will reduce the caterers. The domestic sector of employment, too, will subside. People will start to save money. Many remain at home, and the need for the services of nannies and housekeepers will disappear. Some are just afraid to let a extra people. What happens next depends on whether foreign workers to leave or not. In Russia without work and without means of livelihood they will not last long. In Metropolitan areas can be difficult. It is important, how this situation will behave the migration authorities whether to renew patents. It might be worthwhile to introduce some breaks and working in Russia for foreigners, who in these three months will delay the payment of permits. But so far none that I have not heard,” said Florinskaya.
That in fact is happening now with foreign workers, told to “Rosbalt” by the Director of the migration programmes of the international non-profit organization Tong Jahoni Valentina Chupik.
According to her, universities have dissolved the foreign students on forced vacation, many of them got their visas annulled. The owners of catering establishments have already started to fire people to cut their costs. Having problems with unpaid wages. The people were left without a livelihood, trying to return home, but to no avail.
“People can’t fly, because, first, Russia has closed its borders, and second, their country of origin has closed the borders. Flights canceled. Some sold them the tickets at 30-60 thousand rubles, knowing about the border closures and air travel. Now the money they do not return, explain that this is force majeure and they are not to blame. Facing a long legal process. But the courts are closed, even sue is now impossible. Many migrants daily are at airports. They have nothing, nowhere to live. We are on the money feed them, although we have no funding: no sponsors, no grants. We spend their salaries. Now our care for about 700 people. And I guess we know not all”, — said the Agency interlocutor.
According to her, stuck in airports, people are starting to rebel. “They say we don’t want to live in a contagious Russia, where the ruble fell, and we don’t pay salaries. And even if the pay is still less than we could make at home. In addition, they are afraid to leave the airport, assuming that the planes will fly without them. Although no planes there. But they have nowhere to go: no money to pay the rent and have nothing to eat” — said Chupik.
On the one hand, according to experts, the migration service has allowed to extend stay at old addresses everyone who is here legally. “The problem is that gun registration is not renewed, clinging to the slightest error to commas. But most importantly, foreign nationals can’t do it by themselves without a host. I was talking to a woman — a citizen of Kyrgyzstan. In Russia she lives with her daughter along with son — in-law is also from Kyrgyzstan. It took three days, six hours spent in line to apply for renewal of registration. But this is only due to the fact that the documents prepares a family member. People who rent apartments for the money and are generally not eager for anyone to register, hardly go on it” — says Chupik.
According to experts, many foreign nationals in one moment can be in Russia outside the law. “Because the courts were closed and deportation, they no longer accept, this function is assumed in the management of migration. They take from the people the obligation that they leave the country within five days. How to do it when the surface and air transportation shut down? Teleport? Thus, if migrants do not leave, they are landing in jail,” she said.
Russians who leave from the regions to work in big cities no less than of labor migrants from Central Asia, and they work generally in the same industries, says Florinskaya. “They, of course, easier to go home and wait out the quarantine at home. But this situation also hit. Many of them also run the risk to remain without money. They will be the last to go to work, ride on public transport. These people are more than others prone to infection,” — said the expert.
In fact, we are only at the beginning, the Director of the Banking Institute HSE Vasily Solodkov. “We have raised the travel. Obviously need big help airlines to fly otherwise we risk to remain without carriers. The following will be the services sector. Has already announced that it closed the theaters. In shopping centers they were one of the main places of attraction for people. So a TC will be less. In the TTS, which, in my experience, one-third were empty before these events. Continue sprinkling in terms of catering: cafés, restaurants, and all that is connected with it. According to estimates of the chamber of Commerce, we may go bankrupt, about three million small and medium entrepreneurs. Many of them took out loans on their business, their employees also debts to banks, including mortgage. And this is, again, another beginning. According to official figures, we are now in the situation of Italy two months ago,” — said Solodkov.
Thus, according to the expert, the behavior of people, to put it mildly, does not fit the reality. “Sick people quietly walk in the street, in drugstores it is impossible to buy basic masks for protection. In big cities continues to run the subway, with the prohibition to gather more than 50 people. From the point of view of the epidemic, this causes great concern,” he said. But it is important to understand what poverty, fear of losing the apartment due to defaults on mortgages chase people for work.
Together with the spread of coronavirus, according to the source, will increase the number of bad loans. This will include both consumer loans and loans to business.
“Can we put people in homes and giving them money? A difficult question. But Italy put, France is planted, the Kingdom took this decision last night. This is done to ensure that the health system could handle. In Italy the lack of such measures at the time led to the fact that the hospital gushed a huge stream of people with pneumonia, and intensive care specialists had to decide whom to connect to the ventilator, and someone — no. The problem is this. Therefore, it is desirable in some way to curb the epidemic’s growth”, — the expert believes.
Theoretically, followed by the utilities, the banking system can also suspend the accrual of penalties and interest on the loans until, until the end of the epidemic, says Solodkov. Another thing is that all banks are different, and the capabilities of the state-owned banks and small private financial institutions are not comparable. “The latter, and so can hardly find a place in the new reality that came after 2014. If you start a mass non-payment, the question arises, why to cover the costs. When you open a Deposit in the Bank is not interested in how repaying the loans. You are interested in your money. But your earnings is derived from income consumption and housing loans, are all interrelated. If you start defaults, it is clear that resources from banks is not enough. And if the banks government help, then all the rest — hardly. And we’re risking to get out of the quarantine with some state-owned banks, and to the same monopoly, with all the consequences in other areas. A worldwide decline in oil prices, gasoline prices are falling, and we somehow continue to grow. The same we can get in the banking sector”, — the expert believes.