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Political crisis in Russia is inevitable. In fact, it has already begun

Политический кризис в России неизбежен. В сущности, он уже начался

For a large part of people fit the limit of patience. Fatigue turned into irritation, and it is beginning to turn into rejection. Predestination begins to fade

When I speak or write about the fact that Russia will enter in a crisis, I almost always ask the question: “what crisis are you talking about? Aren’t we in a crisis?”

No! We live in what can be called economic crisis.

But the crisis needs to ensure the transition to a new quality. Can you tell that what you are experiencing with 2014, gives hope that, in the economic or social sense? No. We had a recession, now may stagnate. But it certainly does nothing.

I want to tell you about the complete and final crisis. What is it to be expressed, which will take political forms?

The main thing that is happening now — we have reached the state when I can not step into the future

We already came to the conclusion to break up with the Imperial legacy in the political sense and in terms of management. What is Imperial control? You live in a rich area, and your income disposes of Moscow. And you could live much better.

From my point of view, what I think is the revival of traditions of the Russian Empire (i.e. the return of the Crimea), as it was the final signal that the Russian Empire became a Republic. Russia, Putin said, “Crimea returned to home port”. What was the mass reaction? It was a delight, but he went. In the parliamentary and presidential elections the theme of the Crimea were not used.

But what is more important? If you ask the question: “do you Want accession to Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States?” 9 out of 10 would probably say “No.” And it will be confirmed any sociology. For a very simple reason. There is not a force (because every Empire is voltage), or, frankly, money. Probably better to spend money on themselves than to help rebuild schools in Syria? With all due respect to Syria.

Russia is a Republic that exists on the level of mass sensations of exhaustion of resources, but which in the minds of our rulers is still an Empire. I would have had nothing against the consciousness of the rulers, if they hadn’t tried to restore the greatness of our expense

What we are experiencing now, is largely intertwined with international and even global processes. High probability of a global crisis. The crisis of the system of international relations is obvious. It is collapsing, and it would have happened regardless of Crimea. We are experiencing a crisis in European and Western policy in General: new parties, old die, new ones come policy.

From my point of view, large-scale political crisis in Russia is inevitable. In fact, he has already begun. As often happens, we experience some symptoms separately, but the disease is still not diagnosed

What are the symptoms?

A qualitative change in the mass consciousness.
The destruction of propaganda.
The crisis of personal leadership of Putin.
The crisis of governability at all levels and in all sectors of public service and municipal management.
The attempt of the transit system in a turbulent situation.

What is the danger of an impoverished middle class

Please note — I did not say a word about the economy. Important than economic indicators alone, but how we perceive them. Political crises do not occur only in a situation of economic decline. For example, in Ukraine the orange revolution took place during lifting. Rallies on Bolotnaya in Russia in late 2011 and early 2012 is not a consequence of the crisis, then we had economic growth. Moreover, from the point of view of power, most secure people — is poor. If you live in a situation of stagnant poverty, you will never have to protest and oppose the government. Favorite Russian phrase: “don’t live well, nothing to start”. We have these at least one-third of the population.

And those who are in the zero years began to live better, a new middle class, mostly residents of large cities — potentially the most explosive audience

Imagine that since 2003 your income grow. You plan for yourself a good life, buy an apartment in the mortgage, or build a country house. Planning for children is a good education for themselves — quality health care, and everything goes well. By and large you don’t care about political democracy. You don’t like corruption, lack of competition, that in the political arena the same people, but you make a rational choice: “My income grow. Before me new horizons”. But since 2014 everything begins to crumble. First you see it as an accident, a fatal mistake, but in 2016 it becomes apparent that it seriously. And in 2018, after the reassignment of the government of Medvedev, it becomes clear that it is a long time, and maybe you start to think that forever.

What’s going on with you and your consciousness? You suddenly realize that all your life plans, and most importantly, the future of your children and grandchildren, go downhill

If yesterday you were the new middle class, now became the new Russian poor. And in the future — the new Russian poor. 40% of the population of Russia is taking microloans to buy food! These are working people, they can’t eat. But the danger is not they, but those who have tasted of a better life.

What kind of strategies people choose? One strategy is to leave the country. If not you yourself, then children can have a better life. The second strategy, traditionally Russian — adaptation: to crawl in a hole and survive. By the way, even those people who have saved income, spend less. One hundred years of our history have not been in vain. Like animals we feel that it would be worse! Need to save money, resources and power.

And the third strategy is what to endure? What will I benefit from patience?

It seems that for a large part of society approach the limit of patience. They were overtaken by the feeling that endure beyond pointless. In this respect, very important was 2018 — a year of breaking the mass consciousness, its transition in qualitatively new condition. And this is confirmed by the sociology

On the eve of the presidential elections, the main emotion against Putin was tired. The people said, “We are for him, of course, vote, but in the hope that this is the last time”.

But there were hopes that, perhaps, Mr Putin will try to restore the contract. There was a Treaty between “king” and the people that the king protects the people from the “evil boyars”, provides more or less acceptable living standard. People had hoped. But when the king reappointed the same government headed by Dmitry Medvedev, exhaustion turned into irritation.

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It was also announced pension reform. Secretly, it was expected that Mr Putin will say that we don’t need it, officials say, was excited. From an economic point of view, it really is not needed, the country could do without the pension reform, especially since in many regions the life expectancy for men is below the level of the retirement. No, back to recoup was not.

And irritation beginning to turn into rejection and aggression

From my point of view, this process is evolving even faster than I could. Fall 2018 vote. Four of the region “rolled” the governors, which was proposed by Vladimir Putin. I was told that in reality these regions was eight, just four managed to play the game. This means that the irritation develops into a new political behavior.

What is Ottawa qualifications? Belonging to the “United Russia”. I remember how it was in 1989 and especially in 1990 when Soviet power — for anyone, only against the Communists. Now begin to vote for anyone, only against “United Russia”. I would say that it is very harmless political behavior. It is peaceful! No face hits, no one is calling for pogroms. You just come and vote against it.

Is not very peaceful political behavior. In Arkhangelsk several thousand people took to the streets, passed through the cordon and staged a spontaneous rally. Well they were not caught by the officials. By the way, in 90-e years the officials were not afraid to come and speak.

So we saw two new opportunities for political behavior:

Conventional protest. We go and vote.
Unconventional. We do not believe that by voting, court, complaints and petitions may be something to change. And go out into the streets.

When one behavior to another will grow and grow if at all? Critically it depended and continues to depend on Putin because he is the main intermediary between the bureaucracy (let’s call them the elites) and society, the main guarantor of the efficiency of the bureaucracy.

But what is Putin for the bureaucracy and the elites? This is a man who could control the electorate, society. If the level of support is high, it means that society is not ready to speak. As soon as the support level begins to decline — this is a dangerous signal.

Actually, his support now — about 30%. But this is not enough to control the society as a whole

Drop handling

In addition to the leader, there is entourage, which ensures efficiency. It occurs even more serious problems. We can watch them on the local or regional level. The governors are updated by two-thirds. Came “young technocrats” or former guards of the President. The efficiency increase or decrease? Dropped! If the person was a great Deputy in Moscow or a great guard, does this mean that he was a good Governor? He’s afraid to talk to people with local officials, they bitch.

This technocratic paradigm has led to a sharp decrease in controllability. And that is very dangerous in a situation when increased political risks, these people are incapable of political behavior. Management is working with people. If you will 5-10 thousand people in the area, you will they riot send? And in the 90-ies are not sent. Out, agreed, somehow managed to extinguish the crisis.

Many things that seemingly should have a positive effect, are destructive to the system. Here, Dagestan, where he began the fight against corruption. Wonderful! A year has passed: officials removed once, second, third. It turned out that it is impossible to solve a single question. Was a bad corrupt system, but if I had to solve the issues of land acquisition, sewer, you know who to contact, and now not to anyone. The system is not working. This is very similar to what it was in the late Mikhail Gorbachev, when was glasnost and perestroika, criticism and self-criticism. In the result the party bureaucracy came to the conclusion: “why do we need all this?”

And now look what is happening in Russia today. We at the regional level repression affected two percent of the officials. It’s a lot or a little? In comparison with Stalin’s times it’s things vegetarianism. But in Stalin’s time were not social networking had such a rapid exchange of information and a communication system. The effect of planting these two percentages or institution is much higher than under Stalin.

Russian law is so constituted that everything you do can be delivered to you in guilt. Why do you work? Better to pretend. You send reports, he’s fine. What really — nobody is. Well, plus the aggressive self-assertion, which I have often heard: “All is not jail. And we need to live, children need to live, we now prepare for what will happen later.”

Can lead the conversation, which I recounted to a friend. He is the owner of the patent for a very important and valuable technical invention. He man is extremely wealthy, has achieved success in the banking business. Six months ago, one of those who are in uniform, said to him:

“You know, I can lobby, we for this case to get the money from the Treasury.

The man was delighted, had offered to compile a project. But he answered him:

— You do not understand, do not all of your documents, the money will get split and all.

— What about the project?

— You do not understand. Here will start such chaos that we will not be anyone business.”

Very interesting samorazoblachitelnym recognition. It came from the person who is called upon to protect national interests and security. But now the FSB excites more cases on economic crimes, business, what, in fact, to protect the security of the country. This, in itself, is also symptomatic.

We see that to solve the questions more difficult, not matter what a system is technocratic or corrupt. But more importantly for us — we stand in relation to power as consumers of their services and just how consumers of the information. You hear from officials: “You here did not stand”, “You have no one in Afghanistan was not sent”, “nobody asked You to give birth”, “You skank”. It is in Arkhangelsk brought people.

They complain to the courts, and they punched in the face. Before it’s all offset by the opportunity for economic growth. They now feel that the government looks at them as cattle, and this power — in fact the occupation. It is alien to them, she is not ready to implement any of the basic human interests. She says it almost openly. This is a very strong tension.

Ask about the history that is now unfolding around the placement of landfills. Got the report, prepared by the opposition, and the Russian popular front that they will lead to the development of cancer, respiratory diseases, dozens of times. What? Did anyone consider to give that up? To purchase other plants with improved technology? No. At stake is a lot of money — billions of dollars. The opinion of those who will live next, account is not taken. How do people relate to this?

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Drop propaganda

In the Russian Federation was a great promotion, one of the most efficient in the world, until she began to step on his rake. Turn on the TV — from eight major themes in what place will Russia? Well, if sixth. But we live in Russia. We are concerned about low incomes, unemployment, lack of quality health care and education. You hear it discussed in a talk show?

The crisis of propaganda in that it is perceived as not having any relation to the real problems people in Russia

And so more and more people are leaving the social network. In their influence they are still not stronger than propaganda, but comparable in scale and degree of confidence. The government sees this and makes quite a natural conclusion — if this is an alternative system of information, then it must be brought under control.

It all began a year ago — the law on independent Russian Internet. You know how it is now demanded to be called, what will be the turnover of propaganda? Act reliable the Internet!

A year ago everyone said it was impossible. No, it is technically possible. By 2021 the cost of enormous financial costs and social losses, everything will be ready. However, there’s a catch. The people who gave the green light to a restrictive strategy, do not use computers and social networks because I consider it a threat. They give printouts.. So I tend to believe that negative consequences from attempts at implementation [of the bill] will greatly exceed all the advantages and positive opportunities on which they rely.

Finally, the transit authority

It is necessary to pass it: sucked the choices of candidates. Believe it, this is serious! Changes to the Constitution, the different options are all there. In 2020, was supposed to begin to amend the Constitution, I do not know now. People gradually prepare. Vyacheslav Volodin will say, Vladimir Solovyov — it’s all training. But there is one bit of a situation. All this is good to do when you are on top of power and tranquility. When you are in the country perfectly are economic works, then you can make any kind of political constitutional reform. Someone will not like it, but the people will decide — God bless him!

Russia now looks like a taken in hand blotted the sheet of paper that begins to disintegrate

The same constitutional amendments. The people involved in it, saying, “you see, it’s like replace the gasket in the old Soviet apartment.” You came to the bathroom, need to replace gasket – faucet fucked, then we need to change the tube, and then the wall flew.

Things not to do in a situation of deepening crisis. From my point of view, nothing planned will not be realized. And when you try to implement will cause very sharp and strong reaction, disproportionately more significant than they might be a few years ago. It could well change the Constitution in 2011-2012 Even better in 2008. for example, would Mr Putin in 2008 (don’t know the head of the state Council), and what would we say? The greatest ruler of Russia! I have no doubt there would be mythologizing. The man who raised Russia from its knees.

The chance of a change

What this means for all of us? This has a direct bearing on us. Not just because we can and will become the victims of all this. But this opens the chance for change.

It happens that everything is predetermined and we have no choice beyond his own biography. I remember your past, the beginning of the 80s. Everything was predetermined. Where and what are you going to learn. You will receive a flat — inferior, but will get a pension wyslouzil, the car – not the fact but the chance was. And then suddenly came Gorbachev. In 1989 there was a sense that life is not predetermined, that everything begins to change. Most, of course, look at what is going on, spellbound. But there are people who understand that may have something to do, something to affect, something to implement.

In political terms, that the future was open until 1993, I think. In a sense, it opened in 1996 — I think that in our history we have been more competitive elections.

And then it again began to seem preordained. There was a certain political order. We willingly accepted. Not because we, Russians, hate democracy, no. We are just like everyone else. We just decided that after all the tests (and we have experienced a lot in the twentieth century), a little bit better to live is democracy. People for it can not be blamed.

Everything seemed preordained. Remember, many people blamed the lack of elections, but when looking at the figures of their income, said: “to Hell with it!”

Everything seemed to be decided a year and a half ago, before the presidential election. But now, wherever I went, people everywhere are saying: “We feel that something began to change”

They feel that hung in the air something else. Not saying that is good or bad, or that it’s the air of hope. No. The feeling, ends what happened. Predestination begins to fade. Before all of us enter the space. Space choice, the space of possibilities. We will use it in different ways. 99% will never use it. But there is always 1% that I call ambitious. This is an ambitious personality, ambitious groups who suddenly realize that they have a chance to do what previously they could not do. Keep this in mind. You have the chance. Not all of you will decide to use it, but if you dare, the chance is best implemented in a group together with someone.

The future is no longer predetermined. It began to change. And regardless of how you behave (even a small group of people) can depend very much. So try now to look at the world not in the way you looked at it before

In my eyes the Soviet Union was collapsing. Remember that at first all it seemed a phantasmagoria, something that can never be — in the early 1989. And it was a powerful state, not like this. Try to understand, to feel and to make conclusions from this all what you see and are watching now, begins to fade in our eyes

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