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Three scenarios of belt-tightening

Три сценария затягивания поясов

Russian government will force citizens to become poorer, and promised that the standard of living is either going to stagnate or fall. Slightly or significantly — as lucky.

Updated economic foresight and vision of our leaders is published in recent days, official order in part, and partly in the form of leaks. In the role of a formal source is the Ministry of economic development, but the main points, apparently, agreed with the heads not only of Finance, but even the Central Bank, the head of which until recently a rather passionate argument with the chief of the Mayor.

Before us, therefore, is not some departmental reasoning, and the combined position of captains of industry and Finance. And in addition approved by the leader. Or at least it adopted the so-called “economic Meeting”, which was the same Silvanus, Elvira and Oreshkin, the lack setprimary only emphasized the seriousness of the conversation.

On last year’s “may decree” Putin can now a few years not to remember. It replaced a much more dull calculations and forecasts. At least with regard to 2019-mu and 2020. However, when it comes about the more distant years, the decree would again be in effect and foresight of rasplanirovke gain unnatural bravura tone. But it is certainly a tribute to the ritual. But their arguments about the next five years reflect the true intentions — and this is interesting to the ordinary person.

Let’s leave the arguments about “improving investment climate” and other artistic decorations to lovers of fine. We list only those tests that, according to the economic chiefs, have to go through us, ordinary people.

Scenarios we have three. Let’s start with the optimistically — named, but “basic”.

In this embodiment, the 2019 year will be worse than 2018, but not dramatically. GDP will grow by 1.3% (down from 2.3 percent last year, in which, however, few believed), retail trade turnover — also by 1.3% (was 2.8%) and real disposable income by 0.1%, i.e., in strict accordance with last year’s reports.

If you squeeze traditional statistical embellishment, the incomes of people this year have a chance once again to decline, albeit slightly. A small increase in purchases of goods and services if it really is fixed, will provide consumer loans, portfolio which is forecast to grow over the year by 20%.

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The authorities are very concerned with the attainment of thoughtless citizens into debt and “after the entry into force of the regulatory restrictions from October 1, 2019” I hope to end this mess — that in 2020 the increase in the portfolio of consumer credits has fallen to 4%.

It is clear that it will hit the consumption. The growth of retail turnover in 2020 should be reduced to 0,6%, despite the expected in this scenario, the acceleration of growth in GDP (1.7 per cent) and an increase in disposable income (1.5%).

That is, even in optics official optimism of the current and the next years promise the stagnation of real living standards. But planners do not leave us without words of consolation, suggesting that “the negative shock from the slowdown in consumer lending” citizens can mitigate, for example, waste of savings, deposited them in the accounts. Stupid, you see, the Council.

However, the “base case” scenario, as already mentioned, the easiest and most pleasant for the people. The real horror may occur, if the struggle with consumer crediting will not be crowned with victory. If its growth is not stopped, somewhere year and a half the bubble will burst itself, and we get into a scenario of “sudden stop consumer credit, which will be a sharp deterioration of the creditworthiness of borrowers with a further increase of the debt burden”. Now that’s going to be a nightmare: “the economy will go into recession, GDP will shrink,” and household spending on final consumption will fall by four per cent, if not more.

However, it is not excluded that this is the case when the next disaster boss slightly exaggerated. The main aim of cutting down consumer credit is to redirect the money to “investments”, ie forcing financial institutions to make loans not citizens, and trusted magnates, engaged in national projects. In whose interests our magnates will easily dispose of inherited money, is unclear. Or, conversely, too clear. But to withdraw these funds from the common people resolved as quickly as possible. Hence the image of the horrors that overwhelm the ordinary people, if not superiors will not protect them from falling into debt slavery.

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If scenario # 2 is deliberately grim, the third option is the most possible, probable, but called somehow “conservative” — is presented as something too lightly.

Both of the previous scenario assumed that the global economy will continue to grow though not as fast as recently, but still quite confident — a three per cent per year. But what if it will enter a stagnation or decline?

“Conservative” scenario is all about. But without any intellectual delights and attempts to portray a coherent picture of the world crisis. In the model just laid a slightly lower oil price is $42.5 per barrel in 2020 instead of $57 in the “basic” scenarios, and slightly increased the dollar — 69 66 RUB RUB is of Course, a serious global crisis will respond we have a larger and more varied events than the appreciation of the dollar on three rubles.

Insincere softness “conservative” scenario caused by the fear to admit the main customer of all our plans, and along the way, and the people, that this is quite likely the global recession will certainly detract from dreams about the growth of the Russian economy and again reduce the standard of living of ordinary people. With the same parameters, which in this scenario are issued during the crisis, it is possible to assert that in this embodiment of the GDP in 2020 at least a little, but will grow as disposable income rises by one percent.

Here is the overtaking Germany, digitalisation, demographic miracle and the rise of quality-of-life milestones announced as another of Putin’s six-year-olds.

No one calls 2018 a successful year, although the statistics somehow, and pulled. From the current 2019 even the authorities are waiting for even smaller successes. And in 2020, it projects a plus adventures for citizens — both internal and external.

All state-owned scenic landmarks the first three-year period of the current presidential term vary between the stagnation of the standard of living, and more or less marked decline. One consolation: the miracles recorded in the second three years, has not been canceled. It is still far, and in this respect, “may decree” remains in full force and effect.

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